Recap of Our 2011 Predictions: Trends Uncovered; Brands on Their Way
Smartphones and social technologies now connect us in global word-of-mouth networks of unparalleled passion, influence and marketing potential. This development has changed media. It has changed marketing.
In January, we posted Media Logic’s 11 Predictions for Retail Marketing in 2011. We felt retailers would be among the first businesses to move decisively into the social world, to counter the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities. How’d we do? Let’s examine our 11 predictions one at a time.
1. “There’ll be no more social media strategies for you, missy!”
Let’s be honest, when social media first popped on retail’s radar, way back in 2010, few took it seriously. Writing status updates and tweets fell to those “crazy kids” in the marketing department. Social strategies, for what they were worth, were cute little things best kept separate and isolated from serious grown-up marketing.
Media Logic predicted this would change in 2011. We expected retailers would begin to see their social channels (and the easily spied upon social channels of their competitors) as more than alternates to their broadcast and direct channels. We believed they’d come to view social platforms as engagement channels and, perhaps even more importantly, feedback channels that could deliver enhanced customer experiences and inform the greater marketing effort.
How’d we do? Well, right at here at the year’s end, we are FINALLY hearing retailers discuss social communication as a central component of their general marketing strategies. But to be honest, there is a lot of opportunity still left to explore.
Status: Pending.
2. “Anybody with a conversion fetish will be asked to leave.”
Even though Facebook itself tried to help brands measure ROI in terms of engagement instead of sales (with access to “talking about” data and insights on “total reach”), many retailers are still pounding the table demanding direct evidence of revenue driven by social media. This pressure has pushed many marketers toward so-called F-commerce – stores built right into Facebook. The results, for many, have been disappointing.
Still, the correlation between social engagement and business success remains strong.
The success of Media Logic’s Retail Social Juice Index suggests to us that retailers have moved beyond the simple metric of sales to the more appropriate metric of engagement to assess their social marketing efforts.
Status: Looking good.
3. “Big box retailers will make friends with phones.”
Sadly, the vast majority of big box retailers did not make friends with phones in 2011. They did not develop shopping apps that worked with UPC or QR codes. They did not turn shopping into an adventure game by enhancing the experience with mobile tricks and treats. And now? It appears Amazon’s Price Check app may have beaten them to the punch. With the app, consumers can scan products in-store and find lower prices online. Of course, brick and mortar retailers aren’t happy about this, but here’s hoping they use their frustration to answer Amazon’s challenge. It’s unlikely to be the last one.
Big box retailers should look to other brands that are getting this right, such as the American Express tie-ins with retailers and Foursquare, the Apple Store app that lets retail customers buy in-store with iPhones and walk out with their purchases (even without interacting with store personnel) and Starbucks’ experimentation with augmented reality.
Status: What are they waiting for?
4. “Media will stop costing money and start making money.”
The idea here was that brands with large fan bases would begin to sell (or leverage through co-op) some of their owned media space. It’s a little hard to track. A few discounters have featured co-op Facebook tab promotions, but true complementary trades or more direct sales of brand-owned media space has not (yet) become common practice.
Status: Bad call.
5. “Interactive promotions will escape the Facebook tab.”
Many Facebook tool developers, including Buddy Media, WildFire and EngageSciences, now make it easy for users to create promotions not only on Facebook, but on websites, microsites, blogs and elsewhere.
Status: We have a winner!
6. “Goodbye, social media cowboy!”
As social marketing has evolved, it is no longer the purview of the lone enthusiast. Managing a complex web of social promotions, social commerce, experiential marketing and real-time conversational marketing – on brand and integrated with a retailer’s broader marketing efforts – takes coordination and professional support.
On this topic, remind us to review with you our social marketing management platform, Zeitgeist & Coffee, the next time we talk.
Status: Maybe sad (there was something charming about that guy!), but true.
7. “AdweekMedia’s 2011 list of Agencies of the Year will not include a single traditional advertising agency.”
Though the official list hasn’t been published as of this writing, we’re going to guess we were really wrong about this one. Traditional agencies have not disappeared. They’ve fought back by becoming, well, more social.
Status: Way wrong. (Sorry, Big Fuel.)
8. “The headlines will read, ‘Facebook is Dead!’”
Despite link-trolling articles like – “Facebook is Dead For Gen Y; What’s Next?” (MediaPost, November 2011) – Facebook remains the central social platform for retailers. This is likely to continue into 2012 even as consumers begin to play more with Tumblr, Pinterest, FourSquare … and new social platforms that are yet to be invented.
Status: Right (the headlines were wrong).
9. “We’ll ask paid media to come out and play, too.”
Real-time participation has arrived! Today we use Twitter hashtags to interact with television. We use QR codes to turn magazines into websites. And we play with Times Square billboards from companies like Audi, CBS, Kodak and Disney, and even those developers co-opting billboards to promote their own messages.
But what makes this prediction spot on are the efforts by retailers and other companies to take it to another level. Major brands like Excedrin and Pop-chips have built integrated campaigns that include television and radio around social promotions, and X Factor went well beyond simple hashtag use, incorporating its X Factor app directly into the experience of watching and interacting with the show in real time.
Status: Right and getting righter by the second.
10. “I’m running away!”
Marketing and sales teams used to have control over marketing messages. Now, more than ever, consumers are challenging those canned pitches. Social media gives shoppers the ability to research brands and products with a click or a tap. And what are they looking for? Not just what brands tell them! They’re running away from that and finding out what their friends have to say. (They trust their friends more than they trust marketing – and haven’t they always?) The role of “big media” has shifted. The marketing message is but a starting point in what can be a lifetime of social engagement.
Status: Let’s all run together.
11. “Don’t worry, marketing will get fun again.”
Status: It certainly has for us!
